How Microsoft’s licensing shift is exposing the cracks in traditional forecasting models and why acting late will cost you.
TL;DR
Microsoft’s move to CSP and MCA-E isn’t just a change in contract. It’s a change in cadence, accountability, and consequence. Enterprise renewals are now fast-moving, less forgiving, and data-dependent. Most organizations still rely on static, outdated forecasting methods, and they’re about to pay for it.
Surveil helps you go from guessing to knowing. Because without real usage insights, your next renewal might cost more than you think.
The Renewal Landscape Just Changed (Again)
Under the Enterprise Agreement (EA), most renewals followed a familiar rhythm. There were grace periods. Sales reps would guide the process. You could “true up” later if you missed a detail. Forecasting was important—but not make-or-break.
That structure is gone.
With Microsoft’s push toward Cloud Solution Provider (CSP) and MCA-E models and the elimination of volume-based pricing discounts, renewals are now:
- Self-managed
- Shorter notice
- Less negotiable
- Tied directly to your usage precision
Worse, Microsoft is applying single-tier pricing to all customers at renewal. So if your forecast is off even by a little you could be locking in inflated costs for years.
Why Most Forecasting Approaches Will Fail
Here’s what enterprise teams are doing wrong:
❌ They’re forecasting from outdated spreadsheets
Most orgs are still using static Excel models based on rough department-level inputs. But in a usage-based world, that’s like bringing a calculator to a data center.
❌ They lack real-time usage intelligence
You can’t forecast what you don’t see. If you don’t know which licenses are actively being used, which are dormant, and where entitlements are being misallocated, you’re forecasting blind.
❌ They’re not modeling what-if scenarios
In the past, forecasting was backward-looking. Now, it needs to simulate renewal options. How will discounts disappear? What does overprovisioning cost you across 3 years? What if you consolidate regions or shift workloads?
❌ They miss the collaboration layer
Forecasting is no longer a Finance-only exercise. IT owns the usage data. Procurement owns the contracts. Without a shared platform, no one owns the truth.
What’s at Stake in the Next Renewal
Let’s be clear:
This isn’t just a finance challenge. It’s a boardroom issue.
If you miss your Microsoft forecast:
- You overbuy licenses you don’t use
- You underbuy and lose access or scramble with reactive purchases
- You renew blind and give up negotiating leverage
- You lock in bad terms under Microsoft’s new pricing for years
And without discounting as a cushion? You eat the full cost of that misstep
The New Forecasting Mandate
Modern enterprises need a purpose-built forecasting engine that:
✅ Tracks real-time M365 and Azure usage across users, business units, and geographies
✅ Models license consumption against renewal timelines and product shifts
✅ Highlights optimization opportunities before it’s too late
✅ Aligns stakeholders with clear, actionable insights
Enter Surveil: Forecasting, Reimagined for Microsoft
Surveil’s Microsoft Contract Center gives you a powerful new lens for renewal readiness. With Surveil, you can:
- See usage vs. entitlements in real time
- Project future needs by role, region, and trend
- Compare renewal models across CSP, MCA-E, and EA options
- Align IT, Finance, and Procurement with shared cost clarity
You’re no longer guessing. You’re modeling with precision.
Final Thought:
The most expensive licensing mistake you can make isn’t overpaying. It’s showing up unprepared.
Microsoft has made their move. Now it’s your turn.
Without full visibility across your Microsoft 365 and Azure footprint, you can’t cut what you can’t see.
✅ Take Control of Your Microsoft EA Renewal
Microsoft’s November 1st licensing change is just weeks away. Whether your renewal is near or months out, the window to build leverage is closing.
👉🏼 Book a Microsoft Licensing Readiness Session to:
- Uncover usage-based savings that can fund your transition
- Run EA-to-CSP scenarios using your real tenant data
- Navigate Microsoft’s new pricing model with confidence
- Get a clear action plan — no fluff, no pressure e
🎥 Not ready to talk yet? Watch our executive briefing on-demand: “Microsoft’s New Pricing Model: How to Respond with Precision, Not Panic” It’s a must-watch for CIOs, procurement, and finance leaders preparing for renewal.
📚 Still have questions? Visit our Microsoft Licensing FAQ Hub for answers to common EA and CSP transition concerns.